Election Nightmares that Could Happen in Real Life

 Sure, a meteor could hit the earth. A lightning bolt could hit the White House. But in the coming national election, we're more likely to see fraud being committed before our very eyes.

We've listed some election nightmares that could occur, from the very worst to the, um, least worst. 

Slate.com's "The Ten Scariest Election Scenarios, Ranked" was our guide on this post.

A smite from a lightning bolt seems overdue. How long, O Lord?

1. Today's Nightmare: Messed-up Mail

This threat is already underway at the Postal Service. Trump has literally told a Fox newscaster that the purpose is to disrupt mail-in voting. Hundreds of thousands of voters would be disenfranchised if the administration gets away with it. Since polls show half (or more) of Biden voters are planning to vote by mail, the advantage would be Trump's.

The first Democrat to mount the barricades after Trump's remarks was New Jersey representative Bill Pascrell, who announced Friday that he'd called for a grand jury investigation of every official involved in the "arson" of the USPS.

Pascrell wasn't the first to sound the alarm, though. Federal-level investigations are already underway. And in July, the General Counsel of the USPS contacted at least 40 states' governments to warn them to urge voters to request their mail-in ballots as early as possible. On Friday, the estimated number of states facing mass voter disenfranchisement was 46.

The good news: So far, the concern centers on ballots being returned on time. As long as voters receive ballots before election day, they can return their votes to a drop box or polling station. 

In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign is said to be suing the state over drop boxes (potential for fraud, the Trumplets say) but there will still be the option of turn-ins in polling stations, no matter what happens there.  

2. Pressure to End the Count

Trump's minions, aided by right-wing media outlets, could demand that the vote be called before all the mail-in ballots are counted. 

Remember Florida's 2000 snafu? That's exactly what happened. Affluent young Republican men were bused in to pressure election officials to stop counting, and the strategy worked.* 

The Slate piece suggests that "Count Every Vote" protests nearby might help prevent an undercount.

3. Right-wing Media Declare a Trump Victory

If there are no reliable media reports that everyone will accept, voters may believe that their side has won when they really haven't. Voters on both sides are poles apart in their choice of news sources, so a loss could be as big a surprise as a wet flounder slapping them in the face (you wouldn't expect that, now would you?)

To combat the problem, states can enlist international election watchers. Officials from the "Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights" have been keeping an eye on elections in the US since 2002.

4. Voter Intimidation in Communities of Color

This may sound like a no-brainer, but concrete plans are underway. Slate quotes a former Justice Department official: "The Republican National Committee... is now recruiting 50,000 volunteers in 15 states to watch the polls and challenge voters they believe are suspicious. True the Vote, a group that seeks to make voting ‘like driving and seeing the police following you,’ is recruiting police officers and ex-military [officials] to patrol precincts in ‘inner city’ and Native American precincts.” Trump could also make use of the Insurrection Act, or pull a stunt like the invasion of Portland under the guise of protecting voting integrity.

5. Emergency COVID19 Lockdowns

Left-leaning states and towns could suddenly find themselves on mandatory lockdown for a fake virus emergency. Such a crisis would fool no one, but that doesn't mean Trump won't do it.

6. Targeted Power Failures

Let's assume that foreign powers would be the ones hacking the grid in Democratic parts of the country, because partisan sabotage is unthinkable.

If that's not enough reasons to keep you wide awake until election day, try reading the Slate article for four more.

*A word of reassurance: After the election, I kept an eye on an investigation made by Miami Herald.  It was never published. Elsewhere, I read that George Bush did indeed come out ahead in the disputed districts. That's fortunate, but nobody could have predicted the outcome on election night.

Have we worried you unduly? Do you think hackers, right-wing thugs, or foreign operatives are planning to tamper with the Election? What’s your guess about how?

"Lightning strike" by justinrussell is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/08/election-nightmares-experts.html?fbclid=IwAR2ZisvzbwOG_WDcAsxeUTLWx_cC_m4CUzNh33f_hdrm9Pa75wy4Zu3rooI

Drop box conflict in PA:  https://www.waff.com/2020/08/12/ballot-drop-boxes-are-next-legal-fight-voting/

Late ballots:  https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/512086-postal-service-warns-46-states-mail-ballots-may-not-be-delivered-in-time-to

Consent decree:  https://www.demos.org/policy-briefs/attack-vote-mail-weaponizing-voter-fraud-claims-suppress-vote

ReplyForward

We asked 10 experts for their worst election nightmares—and how to prevent them from happening.

Will Trump Win Re-Election?

Nate Silver is America's favorite egghead 
when it comes to election statistics.

CNN's "Poll of polls," an average of polling results, says that Trump trails Biden by 12 percentage points. RealClearPolitics has Biden leading by 4 points. 

Fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver, who created the voting-statistics site, says Biden wins over Trump by 8.3 points. But at this time in 2016, Clinton led Trump by 6.6 points on Silver's site.

As Yogi Berra put it, "It ain't over till it's over," and Silver warns that "It's way too soon to count Trump out."

In Silver's model of electoral votes, Biden's likelihood of winning is at 71% versus Trump's 29%. The numbers were exactly the same on the eve of the election in 2016, when Clinton's likelihood of winning was 71% to Trump's 29%.

Before you say, "So much for Nate Silver!," think about this. Fivethirtyeight's results are conservative, Silver says, compared to other polls.

Here's what could happen between now and November 3rd: 

— Some things could change.

Several battleground states with narrow margins fell to Trump in 2016, altering the entire electoral chart. But if Biden were to win in five states that Hillary lost -- states where he's polling well -- in addition to carrying the states that she won, Biden would have 352 electors versus the 270 he needs to win.

— Some things will stay the same.

Trump won 2016 in part because the electoral college overrepresents the population in low-density, right-wing, rural states. A voter in California has significantly less clout than a voter in Wyoming, for example. It is not representative democracy, but the electoral college of 2020 stands pretty much as it was in 2016, aside from a change involving the rare "faithless electors."

— There is an abundance of wild cards.

In 2020, not one can predict the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the economy -- let alone the impact of any wrenches that the White House has tossed into the electoral machinery.

For COVID-19, Trump's polling stinks. Almost 58% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis, just a tick higher than those who are worried about the economy (57%).

Approval ratings follow party lines. Some 78% of Republicans think that Trump's COVID-19 response has been just dandy, versus 10.8% of Democrats, with independents weighing in at 32.8% positive. That could change if COVID-19 eases up, or an effective vaccination is available before the Election.

Trump's still in the green on the economy, with a 49% approval rating versus 47.7% disapproval. Incomes to date have been high because of stimulus and unemployment checks, Silver notes. That will change, now that the Senate is out of session till September. Trump's proclamations of new COVID-19 relief spending may or may not help the economy.

— Electoral fraud may occur.

Silver's statistical model also doesn't factor in electoral fraud, which seems certain to be a Trump campaign strategy in 2020. Trump's jaw-dropping, clumsily public moves attacking mail-in votes are in all likelihood just one of several plans to use criminal activity for Trump's re-election. We don't know what foreign hackers will do, either. Suppose the mysterious "Q" of "QAnon" directs his dorks to disrupt the balloting process?

Bear in mind that Trump's deliberate bungling of the Census, designed to minimize the number of hard-luck residents who get counted, will dog elections for the next ten years. How's that for a wild card?

Are you worried that Trump may win re-election? If he does, will it be because of fraud, or because many Americans actually do like having him be President?

"Nate Silver - Caricature" by DonkeyHotey is licensed under CC BY 2.0
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/?fbclid=IwAR3EOdXxYyGbzDOJwQWnDlm0xKmtPb73po6dbqP0xRceiXh6dtiLUhL-3tg
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls accessed on 8/13/2020

Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states su…

No Funding for Mail-in Ballots, Trump says

Anyone who gave the benefit of the doubt to Postmaster Louis DeJoy and his cost-cutting at the Postal Service has been proven to be a sucker. On Thursday, the President made it clear that he's deliberately hampering the mail to affect the November election.

The President is refusing to add to Post Office funding specifically to keep the USPS from being able to handle mail-in ballots.

Now you see it...
One PO Box in our own neighborhood
was removed this week.

"[House Democrats] want $25 billion for the post office. Now, they need that money in order to have the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots," Trump told Fox Business News' Maria Bartiromo. "Now in the meantime, they aren't getting there."

It's unclear why Trump has been fighting mail-in ballots to begin with. Many Republicans are older voters who already vote by mail. Democrats have called for expanded mail-in voting so that people who fear picking up COVID-19 won't have to go in person to the polls.

Trump has been claiming for months that mail-in voting creates the opportunity for rampant fraud, even though mail-in voting gets high marks for its reliability, and fraud has not been a big factor in U.S. national elections to date.

DeJoy's innovations at the post office have included juggling executives to put them in positions that some say do not suit their expertise, literally removing postal sorting machines from the premises of post offices, restricting the number of times in a day that postal workers can deliver mail, and refusing overtime for any reason.

Trump's machinations through Louis DeJoy show that the President has indeed found a way to create rampant fraud in mail-in balloting: Mess with the Postal Service.

How can Americans stop Trump from committing election fraud? Will Trump get away with what is clearly an illegal and corrupt act? Trump is harming a Federal Agency in an attempt to retain power - that is abuse of his office. How can Americans ensure that the vote is clean?

"File:Garberville CA Mailbox.jpg" by Ellin Beltz is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/511835-trump-says-no-post-office-funding-means-democrats-cant-have-universal?fbclid=IwAR22yx1hhwBJKKI0-sxgVDtdQ8qaeTV2Q1qazWfz1GF2nW9J2YpLhxrM1uA

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/13/politics/trump-usps-funding-comments-2020-election/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0H52NhV-718WsVW6swG9xJ3OkRQU_1c4O1OPQRRrAWmf4d28RAGbKJMS8

Move Over, Tinfoil Hats! QAnon Invades Congress

"Q" is the name of a James Bond character.

“QAnon is the mental gonorrhea of conspiracy theories," says Congressman Denver Riggleman (D-Va).

That's one way of putting it. QAnon is hyperbole-proof. You cannot look at this wacko cult of conspiracy theorists without shock, awe and nausea.

Nevertheless, on Tuesday, Georgia primary voters ushered in -- by 60% of the vote -- an honest-to-goodness true believer of QAnon, Marjorie Taylor Greene.

If you thought the Tea Party was weird, buckle your seatbelt. QAnon believes that a secretive international cabal of high-ranking, Satan-worshiping pedophiles runs the world. It's as if Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, the Marquis de Sade, the very weirdest of Rothschilds, the handsy-est graduates of Georgetown Prep, and all their sleazy friends, have their hands on history's gear shifts.

These are the "Pizzagate" folks who thought Hillary Clinton was involved in a ring of pedophiles operating out of the basement of a pizza shop in Washington, DC. (It turned out the restaurant had no basement, let alone sex traffickers.)

To top that off, the group thinks that a mysterious character named "Q" posts hints on line of what comes next. "Q" was a character in the James Bond movies. Today's "Q" could be the Internet Research Agency, Vladimir Putin, the ghost of L. Ron Hubbard, or the teenager who ran for president in 2016 under the name "Deez Nuts" -- no one claims to know.
QAnon also believes that Donald Trump is some sort of superhero fighting against the cabal. Of course, Trump likes that. He's flung happy words all over Greene like a confetti cannon.

QAnon is also distinctly a group of white supremacists. Marjorie Green has been outspoken about her poor opinion of Muslims, Jews, and Blacks, using a personal style reminiscent of flaming arrows in the night.

As The Hill wrote, Greene has compared left-leaning donor George Soros to a Nazi, said that Black Americans are slaves to the Democrats, and summarized the midterm results as an “Islamic invasion of our government.” This charmer says Nancy Pelosi is a “bitch” who should be kicked out of Congress. The FBI views QAnon as a potential domestic terror group.

The scariest part is that, according to Politico.com, dozens of QAnon believers and sympathizers ran for Congress this year. "Greene may only be the vanguard of a congressional faction that could cause long-term disruption to the party," Politico noted. Even the House Freedom Caucus, a deep-red conservative group, supports Greene.

For those of us who thought that the Tea Party would eventually die of well-justified embarrassment, QAnon is mind-boggling. But they're heeeere.

Do you think the Georgia Primary voters realized Greene was part of the QAnon cult of crazies, and voted for her anyway? Will she win in the General Election when the QAnon information is widely understood? How could Donald Trump possibly support a candidate who openly believes such appalling things? "Sean Connery James Bond" by JeepersMedia is licensed under CC BY 2.0

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/511771-win-by-qanon-believer-creates-new-headaches-for-house-gop?fbclid=IwAR3-mf2xVoF71uoCqSABOmydb-vdN8edh4mXw2aEWDeSbiTnl7NU8mBkcLo
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/12/mccarthy-qanon-questions-394439?fbclid=IwAR28ZN9GLhu7G5u-4lpnwnCfVyFLtrhnkIJ6Iw0rLi2qhoJi8YWq8JiYuKE

The Postmaster General Juggles Execs and Delays the Mail -- but Why?

It's now or never for the Post Office. That's what Louis DeJoy, the new Postmaster General, seems to think, and he's cutting costs with an ax.

In eight weeks, the Trump donor and loyalist has demanded that carriers leave their post offices only once a day (leaving some mail undelivered), banned overtime, and insisted that mail sorting machines be shut off early, so additional sorting has to be done by hand.

The USPS competes with commercial carriers, although it also
subcontracts with some to provide "last mile" package service.

DeJoy cheerfully admitted that these steps would slow down mail delivery, and it has -- but he assures everyone that the slowdown won't affect election results. Uh-huh.

The slowdown already tangled up some of the state primaries. Ohio's, for one.

House Democrats have objected and called for a review of the changes. They've also authorized a $25 billion line of credit to ease the agency's cash-strapped budget. Right now, the Post Office is on a lifeline, a Treasury loan that will run out in September.

Trump has insisted that the Post Office will get no more help from the White House (Constitution be damned) unless it raises its rates fourfold. No one took that idea seriously. Instead, DeJoy was called in, elected by the postal Board of Governors at Trump's suggestion.

DeJoy is a logistics exec who -- along with his wife, the appointee for ambassador to Canada -- owns $30 to $75 million in assets in USPS competitors or contractors. DeJoy wrote that he has “done what is necessary" to make sure there's no conflict of interest. He also denies he's influenced by the White House, although he gave $2 million to Trump's campaign or to Republican causes since 2016, according to the Washington Post.

On Friday, DeJoy unleashed a restructuring that shuffles two dozen old-hand execs as if they were pick-up-sticks. DeJoy's plan will also cut the number of Post Office regions to 4 from 7, institute a hiring freeze, and start to request voluntary early retirements.

DeJoy is de-emphasizing institutional knowledge, but his other objectives are unclear. Most immediate is the prospect that DeJoy is pursuing a Trump campaign strategy to minimize mail-in ballots, which, some say, are mostly from Democrats.

DeJoy is setting up the agency as a for-profit arm of government, according to unnamed "postal analysts" quoted in the Washington Post.

Or setting it up to be privatized, a pipe dream for conservatives at least since the Reagan years. Snopes.com, the fact-checking website, states that in June 2018, "this administration [was], in written record, proposing and planning to sell the post office to private corporations, i.e. privatizing." (Snopes says that the election-fraud claim is "unproven.")

Whatever DeJoy is up to, he's looking to do it fast. It's all in the service of ... what?

Is it possible that DeJoy's changes are benign? That he's really just trying to cut costs at the USPS? What would happen if Trump refused further USPS funding? How could DeJoy's actions benefit DeJoy?

"FedEx and US Mail Boxes" by Victor Wong (sfe-co2) is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/07/postal-service-investigation-dejoy/ 

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-postal-service-is-steadily-getting-worse-can-it-handle-a-national-mail-in-election

https://triblive.com/news/politics-election/house-panel-calls-new-postal-chief-louis-dejoy-to-explain-mail-delays/
https://prospect.org/power/one-billionaire-versus-the-mail/