 |
| Nate Silver is America's favorite egghead when it comes to election statistics. |
CNN's "Poll of polls," an average of polling results, says that Trump trails Biden by 12 percentage points. RealClearPolitics has Biden leading by 4 points.
Fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver, who created the voting-statistics site, says Biden wins over Trump by 8.3 points. But at this time in 2016, Clinton led Trump by 6.6 points on Silver's site.
As Yogi Berra put it, "It ain't over till it's over," and Silver warns that "It's way too soon to count Trump out."
In Silver's model of electoral votes, Biden's likelihood of winning is at 71% versus Trump's 29%. The numbers were exactly the same on the eve of the election in 2016, when Clinton's likelihood of winning was 71% to Trump's 29%.
Before you say, "So much for Nate Silver!," think about this. Fivethirtyeight's results are conservative, Silver says, compared to other polls.
Here's what could happen between now and November 3rd:
— Some things could change.
Several battleground states with narrow margins fell to Trump in 2016, altering the entire electoral chart. But if Biden were to win in five states that Hillary lost -- states where he's polling well -- in addition to carrying the states that she won, Biden would have 352 electors versus the 270 he needs to win.
— Some things will stay the same.
Trump won 2016 in part because the electoral college overrepresents the population in low-density, right-wing, rural states. A voter in California has significantly less clout than a voter in Wyoming, for example. It is not representative democracy, but the electoral college of 2020 stands pretty much as it was in 2016, aside from a change involving the rare "faithless electors."
— There is an abundance of wild cards.
In 2020, not one can predict the impact of the COVID-19 crisis and the economy -- let alone the impact of any wrenches that the White House has tossed into the electoral machinery.
For COVID-19, Trump's polling stinks. Almost 58% of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis, just a tick higher than those who are worried about the economy (57%).
Approval ratings follow party lines. Some 78% of Republicans think that Trump's COVID-19 response has been just dandy, versus 10.8% of Democrats, with independents weighing in at 32.8% positive. That could change if COVID-19 eases up, or an effective vaccination is available before the Election.
Trump's still in the green on the economy, with a 49% approval rating versus 47.7% disapproval. Incomes to date have been high because of stimulus and unemployment checks, Silver notes. That will change, now that the Senate is out of session till September. Trump's proclamations of new COVID-19 relief spending may or may not help the economy.
— Electoral fraud may occur.
Silver's statistical model also doesn't factor in electoral fraud, which seems certain to be a Trump campaign strategy in 2020. Trump's jaw-dropping, clumsily public moves attacking mail-in votes are in all likelihood just one of several plans to use criminal activity for Trump's re-election. We don't know what foreign hackers will do, either. Suppose the mysterious "Q" of "QAnon" directs his dorks to disrupt the balloting process?
Bear in mind that Trump's deliberate bungling of the Census, designed to minimize the number of hard-luck residents who get counted, will dog elections for the next ten years. How's that for a wild card?
Are you worried that Trump may win re-election? If he does, will it be because of fraud, or because many Americans actually do like having him be President?
"Nate Silver - Caricature" by DonkeyHotey is licensed under CC BY 2.0
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-way-too-soon-to-count-trump-out/?fbclid=IwAR3EOdXxYyGbzDOJwQWnDlm0xKmtPb73po6dbqP0xRceiXh6dtiLUhL-3tg
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls accessed on 8/13/2020
No comments:
Post a Comment